Imagine every country in the world writing their own exam paper. They choose the questions, they set the pass mark, and they grade themselves. That is essentially how Nationally Determined Contributions work under the Paris Agreement – except the subject is not maths or English, but how much each country will cut its greenhouse gas emissions and how fast.
A Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is a climate action plan that each country submits to the United Nations, outlining its targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change. The “nationally determined” part is the crucial detail – unlike older treaties that imposed top-down targets, the Paris Agreement lets each country set its own level of ambition. This made the agreement possible (195 countries signed), but it also means that nobody is forced to do more than they promise.
🌿 How NDCs Work
Every five years, countries must submit a new or updated NDC to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Each successive NDC is required to be more ambitious than the last – this is the ratchet mechanism built into the Paris Agreement. The idea is that global ambition increases over time as technology improves, costs fall and political will strengthens.
NDCs vary enormously in format and scope. Developed countries are expected to set economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets (e.g. “cut emissions 55% below 1990 levels by 2030”). Developing countries may use other approaches, such as reducing emissions intensity per unit of GDP, cutting emissions below a projected business-as-usual scenario, or setting conditional targets that depend on receiving international finance. This flexibility reflects the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities – the recognition that wealthy, high-emitting nations bear a greater historical responsibility for climate change.
🌿 The global gap
The sum of all current NDCs falls far short of what is needed. According to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024, implementing all existing NDCs would lead to a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – well above the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 degree target. To stay on a 1.5 degree pathway, global emissions need to fall by around 42% below 2019 levels by 2030 and 60% by 2035. This gap between promise and necessity is the central challenge of international climate policy.
🌿 Ireland’s NDC – Through the EU
Ireland does not submit its own NDC. The EU submits a single contribution on behalf of all 27 member states, plus Iceland and Norway. The current EU NDC commits to at least a 55% net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. In November 2025, ahead of COP30 in Belem, the EU submitted an updated NDC that added an indicative 2035 target of between 66.25% and 72.5% reduction, on the path to climate neutrality by 2050.
Within this collective commitment, Ireland carries its own legally binding targets. The Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021 requires a 51% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2018 levels and net zero by 2050. These targets are operationalised through five-year carbon budgets and sectoral emissions ceilings that distribute the reduction effort across electricity (targeting 75% reduction), transport, buildings, industry and agriculture (targeting 25% reduction).
🌿 Ireland’s delivery gap
Setting ambitious targets is one thing. Delivering them is another. The EPA’s May 2025 projections show that currently implemented policies would achieve only a 10% reduction in Effort Sharing Regulation emissions by 2030 compared to 2005 levels – well short of Ireland’s 42% EU target under the ESR. Even with additional planned measures, the projection improves to just 22%. Against the national 51% target (including LULUCF), the EPA projects a maximum achievable reduction of 23% by 2030 – down from 29% projected just a year earlier, as updated data from government departments revealed a widening delivery gap. Agriculture and transport together account for 75.9% of Ireland’s ESR emissions, making them the hardest sectors to decarbonise.
Ireland’s total greenhouse gas emissions fell 6.8% in 2023 – the largest reduction outside of recession and the lowest absolute level in over three decades. Provisional figures for 2024 show a further 2% decrease, with reductions in most sectors except buildings (where heating demand rose). Yet cumulative performance matters more than any single year. The first carbon budget (2021-2025) set a ceiling of 295 Mt CO2eq, and 63% of that allowance had already been used by the end of 2023. The EPA now projects this first budget will be exceeded by 8-12 Mt CO2eq.
🌿 The Third Round – NDC 3.0
Countries were required to submit their third-round NDCs by February 2025, though most missed the deadline. As of February 2026, 133 countries had submitted new contributions. The third round focuses on 2035 targets, informed by the first Global Stocktake completed at COP28 in Dubai in 2023. The stocktake confirmed that collective ambition remains insufficient and called for a tripling of global renewable energy capacity and a doubling of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.
For Ireland, the practical implications of each NDC round flow through EU legislation. The Fit for 55 package translates the EU’s 55% target into binding rules across the Emissions Trading System, the Effort Sharing Regulation, the LULUCF Regulation and sectoral directives on renewable energy and energy efficiency. When the EU sets a more ambitious 2035 target, Ireland’s share of the effort will be adjusted through updated regulations – meaning NDC ambition at the global level directly shapes the policies that affect Irish households and businesses.
🌿 Frequently Asked Questions
🌿 What happens if a country does not meet its NDC targets?
The Paris Agreement has no formal penalties for missing targets. Instead, it relies on transparency and peer pressure – countries must report their progress, and the periodic Global Stocktake highlights collective shortfalls. Within the EU, however, failure to meet binding targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation can result in financial and regulatory consequences. Ireland could face the cost of purchasing additional emission allowances from other member states if it exceeds its annual limits.
🌿 Does Ireland have its own NDC separate from the EU?
No. The EU submits a single NDC on behalf of all member states. However, Ireland has its own domestic legislation – the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021 – which sets targets that are in some respects more ambitious than what the EU requires. Ireland’s 51% reduction target by 2030 on 2018 levels and its legally binding carbon budgets go beyond the minimum floor set by EU law.
🌿 Why are NDCs “nationally determined” rather than globally imposed?
Previous climate treaties like the Kyoto Protocol tried to impose binding targets on developed countries from above, and many simply refused to participate or withdrew (notably the United States and Canada). The Paris Agreement’s architects recognised that a universal agreement required flexibility – letting each country set its own ambition was the price of getting 195 nations to sign. The ratchet mechanism is designed to increase ambition over time, even if starting points vary widely.
🌿 How does the IPCC relate to NDCs?
The IPCC provides the scientific evidence that informs NDC target-setting. Its Sixth Assessment Report stated that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees requires a 43% reduction in global emissions by 2030 and 60% by 2035, both relative to 2019. These benchmarks set the standard against which every country’s NDC is assessed – though there is no mechanism to force any country to align its NDC with the science.